By Tong Kim
Last week’s agreement between the U.S. and China to push for “a stronger U.N. Security Council resolution that goes beyond previous resolutions” to sanction North Korea for its nuclear and missile programs brings back to Koreans the memory of an adage that compares their country to the fate of “a shrimp that gets hurt in a fight of whales.”
Whereas a new U.N. sanction resolution has finally taken shape and is expected to pass the Security Council soon, owing to China’s reluctant agreement, deployment of the THAAD system to Korea has become somewhat obscure because of China’s strong opposition. South Korea and the U.S. agree that the THAAD is required to defend the South and the United States.
Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi on Feb 23 met respectively with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and with White House National Security Advisor Susan Rice to discuss a range of areas of interest to the world’s two most powerful nations. One of the timely issues was the DPRK’s nuclear and missile program. President Obama joined the meeting between Wang Yi and Rice, to show “his interest in building a durable, constructive, and productive U.S.-China relationship”.
Beijing and Washington agree to oppose Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile development and both do not accept the DPRK as a nuclear weapons state. While agreeing to a tougher U.N. resolution against Pyongyang, Wang Yi made it clear that China would not go as far as to destroy the North Korean economy that would destabilize the peninsula.
China is firm in its belief that sanctions alone cannot resolve the nuclear issue. In a joint press conference with Kerry, Wang declared, “the Security Council resolution cannot provide a fundamental resolution to the Korean nuclear issue.” China again advocated for a resolution by dialogue, calling for the resumption of the six-party talks that has not met since 2008.
Kerry conceded that the goal of sanctions would be to revive negotiations with the Kim Jong-un regime for denuclearization. Everybody knows that all denuclearization efforts and all sanctions have thus far failed to coax or compel the North to abandon their weapons of mass destruction.
Wang proposed a two-tract approach in the six-party talks to pursue negotiations for denuclearization in parallel with discussions of a peace agreement that will replace the Armistice Agreement under which the parties are still at a technical state of war. This proposal complies with the 9/19 Joint Statement of 2005, which, if still valid, provides the basis for discussing a peace regime for Korea.
The problem is that neither Washington nor Seoul seems interested in talks with Pyongyang at this time. Kerry maintains that the U.S. “wants a negotiated outcome” on the nuclear issue, if the North returns to the table under U.S. terms. Washington is not ready to discuss a peace agreement with Pyongyang. What impact a new UN resolution would have on North Korea remains to be seen.
The details of new UN sanctions will be known soon. Many are anxious to see whether China would agree on a partial maritime blockade to bar North Korean ships from entering ports around the world, or whether China would stop allowing North Korea to ship coal and iron to China. Would China stop providing aircraft fuel to the DPRK?
Regarding the THAAD, Kerry said, “…we are not hungry or anxious or looking for an opportunity to deploy a THAAD battery in Korea…The only reason THAAD being in consultation … a decision has not yet been made… is because of the provocative actions of North Korea which has publicly announced that it is focusing on the United States and which is developing weapons which have the ability to attack the United States.”
The secretary concluded that the only way to stop deploying THAAD is the resolution of the nuclear issue. Although his Chinese counterpart did not mention the THAAD issue publicly, he may have raised the issue in his meeting with Kerry, given China’s intensified opposition against THAAD. While it is unlikely that Washington would change its plan to deploy THAAD, it is possible it will delay the timing of deployment. It is also possible when Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with President Obama in Washington during the next nuclear summit between March 31 and April 1, Xi might bring up the issue for discussion.
Tension is rising on the Korean Peninsula in the aftermath of Seoul’s stunning policy switch from dialogue to confrontation in response to Pyongyang’s nuclear test on Jan. 6 and its rocket launch on Feb. 7. Seoul closed the Gaeseong Industrial Complex, a source of hard currency for Pyongyang, shutting down all channels of communication with the North.
The Park government made a decision in the direction of favoring the controversial deployment of the THAAD system to Korea despite opposition and pressure from China. It seemed Seoul is determined to accept the risk and cost of its hard decisions against Pyongyang, including a strained relationship with China.
Polls show a majority of South Koreans are supporting President Park’s recent actions to undertake what appears to be a “containment policy” by cutting all cash revenues to Pyongyang until it surrenders to unilateral and international sanctions and abandons its nuclear and missile program.
The Seoul government is frantically putting together its defense measures to counter possible attacks from the North in various forms, including terrorism, cyber attacks, localized military provocations along the DMZ and on the NLL on the West Sea. The South is maintaining an increased military alert across the front line, while intensifying psychological operations against the North Korean regime.
Pyongyang’s Supreme Command of the Korean People’s Army on Feb. 23 issued a statement of warning on the eve of the Key Resolve U.S.-ROK joint exercise that will mobilize impressive U.S. state-of-the-art war assets. It warned that the KPA would wage a preventive strike on the Presidential Blue House first then on the United States, “if signs of even small movements are detected in the elements of special forces involved in the so-called operation ‘Beheading’ that targets our leadership”.
Nobody knows how the current situation of confrontation will play out. But, it seems that the fate of Korea will be handed over to the hands of the big powers if the North and the South continue to increase tensions and fortify confrontation without seeking a peaceful resolution of their differences.
What’s your take?
Tong Kim is a Washington correspondent and columnist for The Korea Times. He is also a fellow at the Institute of Korean-American Studies. He can be contacted at tong.kim8@yahoo.com.
